The V-P Debate: Could Be the Biggest Deal

The campaign, by all accounts, has settled into a photo finish catfight. Nobody knows how the swing states will split.

The country, in other words, has a chance of making the same terrible mistake it made eight years ago. Ex- has turned down the possibility of another debate, having been horribly thrashed earlier this month, but nobody believes he has made that a binding decision.

What will determine it could easily be what his running mate does in his upcoming debate on October 1.

With a race this close, people who aren't tied to policy matters want to see somebody come out ahead in something. They don't want to be wracked with indecision. Here may be their last chance, short of some revelations that may or may not be true.

Vice-presidential debates aren't supposed to matter much. This one may be different.

The polls are all over the place. MSNBC thinks Harris is pulling away. The New York Times believes ex- is tightening his hold on the Sun Belt toss-up states. It points to a public that is skittish and waffling, as difficult as that may be to understand. It needs something concrete. It may get it, regardless of its genuineness, next Tuesday.

J.D. Vance is the perfect clone of ex-. He has changed his mind more often than his clothes. He has no principles other than what's been declared before the American Revolution. I hesitated to say that he's out of his mind, because I'm not sure his mind has much left in it that's genuine. Yes, he wrote a best-selling book that doubles down on the victimization of Appalachia, but he has come around to even double down on that. Now, not only is abortion wrong across the board, but childless women have diminished value, regardless of whatever their minds and efforts can develop. Now, he can make up, a.k.a. lie, about things that advance what he believes to be a winning agenda, including that Haitian immigrants are eating cats and dogs in Springfield, Ohio.

The latter sentiment has thoroughly pissed off Springfield's mayor, a declared Republican. That apparently doesn't bother Vance or ex- at all, so I wonder, now, if that mayor would like to reconsider his vote in 

November. Those declarations have set off threats in Springfield's public schools such that state troopers have to be called out to reassure parents that their kids won't get blown up or shot up or otherwise harmed just for attending school.

I hope, indeed I pray, for Tim Walz to casually ease that into whatever conversation the two of them have, having been a high school teacher himself. I think Walz would be well advised to treat Vance as he would have in class a bragging student who has little if any accuracy attached to his statements. In all likelihood, Vance will try to pin Walz into a corner, probably about immigration. Walz can use facts, quietly and calmly, to refute Vance just like social studies teachers like me did when annoyed with some student who liked to sound off but had nothing behind it except what he wished were true, what's being slogan-ized on the street, and/or whatever someone else told him to say, cheap shots notwithstanding, which might be considerable.

Walz's ability to handle what will surely be Vance's outrageous comments might create a bulwark against nonsense that might just take whatever hesitation that's left of some voters and turn them blue. Ex- is doing a fine job of stepping on rakes; posing Vance as ex-'s mini-me might just drag them into the ditch together. 

But maybe not. Without ex-'s acquiescence to a second debate with Harris, this would be the final public, national showdown between the two campaigns. Both can point to a need to gain ground--one to overcome what's analyzed as a deficit, one to create space between the two and confidently drive to the end.

Either way, the two men must know the stakes. Walz can't necessarily win if he has a good debate, but he can lose if he has a bad one. Vance could lead a rally that creates a successful photo finish. Barely a month to go now. Tough for someone to recover from a lousy performance.

Vice-presidential debates are often the stuff of 48 hours of jabbering, followed by a return to electioneering as usual. This one may take that form, too. But maybe not. Tim Walz has a lot to prove Tuesday. If he walks away the winner, he'll make it tougher to deny him and his running mate the prize. New problems will emerge if that happens, but nothing like the devastation that will accompany the other side's triumph. Good luck, Tim.

Be well. Be careful. With some luck, I'll see you down the road.

Mister Mark

Remember: He's Terminator 2. Do Not Forget This.

Well, she did it. Fabulously. It couldn't have gone better had she scripted it herself.

Now what? How do we look at things now?

It is over? Some would say that. I say no. The numbers have moved here in Wisconsin, and that looks promising. But the very fact that they haven't clinched the deal means that the cult of attachment to ex- holds tight and can be defeated only at the edges.

This monster is like Terminator 2. Remember that film? He was destroyed and blown to bits more than once. Turns out you couldn't rely on doing that, ever. He re-formulated himself, literally pulled himself back together, and went on attacking, meaning to kill.

This is that sci-fi come to life. Ex- has gone right on lying (Did you really expect him to stop?). Turns out the mayor of Springfield, Ohio is getting pretty sick of portraying Haitian immigrants as pet-eating barbarians. They're not. They're contributing members of that community. That awful, disgusting rumor is partly the brainchild of his running mate, J.D. Vance, something Ohioans should remember when going to the polls, and again when Vance, should he lose, runs for another Senate term.

Meanwhile, we're coming in on 50 days left. What will ex- do now, besides lie about everything?

I predict he will come up with video lies utilizing artificial intelligence. He has plenty of money to hire the most deceptive people; I'm sure Elon Musk is fairly poised to pounce like a cougar. He will make Kamala Harris look sleazy, dishonest, herself a liar. I predict there will be a new set of ads coming out within three weeks. They will attempt to be devastating.

The Republicans will have to pull the ad claiming that "Bidenomics isn't working." Because it is. The rate of inflation is finally flattening out--just in time. The same ad also brags that gas prices are going up. They aren't. The price of gas in the Milwaukee area is beneath $3.00 in several places. Can't remember when that happened. It has to be happening elsewhere.

There will be plans to intimidate voting officials anew, to potentially smear them where a breakthrough to victory is most possible. Ex- won't have to do it; his enablers can and will try it without attribution. The closer we get to Election Day, the more this will emerge.

There will be new threats to Harris' campaign because her victory is no longer a distant idea. Recall that an assassination attempt nearly took ex-'s life, inches from succeeding. Someone will get it in their heads that Harris somehow deserves the same treatment. Expect this, regardless of source. The Department of Homeland Security has wisely increased the security around the Capitol in anticipation of another January 6 uprising, regardless of result--but you know where it's aimed.

Meanwhile, ex- has said he won't debate Harris anymore. Don't believe this for a second. He wants to catch us off-guard, so he can somehow utilize the advantage of surprise: Look, I've changed my mind! But I highly doubt that Harris, with her savvy so nicely demonstrated last Tuesday, will bite on this ruse. In fact, she announced that she's ready for another one.

If the numbers turn and remain against him, he will call for debate so quickly it'll make your head spin. If he gains ground, he will hedge his bets. If a debate still happens, he will remember to look at her this time to make his insults look better. For him, it's nothing about substance; all about the image. It's worked so far. But he'll have to try it again if the numbers don't respond. Will his self-delusion finally finish him off? We'll have to see.

This kind of deception is old hat for him. Like obsessing with crowd size, we should just yawn. The shock factor is wearing off. He doesn't get that. Too bad for him. That's why he must try to change reality. See above.

Harris has him in a corner. He must either change his approach--he hasn't yet; no reason to assume he will--or she will just keep saying versions of "Had enough?"

But he has overcome what has appeared to be massive odds before. Like the Terminator, he finds a way to charge right back at his foe. And the attention of the voters never lasts all that long.

If anything, Harris has bought time for herself. There will be different challenges, those we haven't heard of yet. October is coming. New polls will be released. Keep breathing.

Be well. Be careful. With some luck, I'll see you down the road.

Mister Mark

"Joy" Is Running Out

I remember the last time "joy" was used as a campaign slogan. Or ploy, if you want to get cynical about it.

It was 1968. The purveyor was Hubert Humphrey. It might just have been the attitude he wanted from the start. Or it might have been something else.

Ex- isn't the only person running for office who's tried to get people to look over here instead of consider what might be aspects of his candidacy that might condemn him to defeat. Happens, in fact, quite often.

In 1968, the Democrats had lots of reasons to try to get people to look the other way. In August, they'd waded through an awful, chaotic, divisive national convention that included a riot in a nearby park that included tear gas and hundreds of arrests; a party hack at the front podium accusing the police of "Gestapo tactics" in the streets; and a 'no decision' on whether or not to support the withdrawal from a war that had already cost the nation more than 25,000 lives. In other words, a complete mess.

Humphrey, then the Vice-President, received a nomination more of less by default, since President Lyndon Johnson, who had supposedly withdrawn from running for another term that past March 31, had seriously considered changing his mind, swooping into the convention, and reclaiming the front-runner status. His control of the Democratic Party was that pervasive. He could still hover anywhere he wanted to.

Humphrey didn't even have the overall support of his own party back then. He began the campaign a full 16 points behind Richard Nixon, who was about to undermine Humphrey with secret negotiations with North Vietnam so he could take credit for getting the country out of the war--not Johnson, who tried a bombing halt just days before the election. North Vietnam didn't engage in progressing negotiations, choosing to wait until Nixon, hopefully, took office.

In the meantime, Humphrey's emphasis on the "joy" of politics and campaigning helped bring him closer and closer to Nixon, who sat on his lead the rest of the way. As we know, Humphrey just about caught him, coming within half a percentage point. He failed, though, partly because of George Wallace's independent candidacy, which freed six southern states from their traditional Democratic mooring.

All that looks to insert itself into this campaign, only two months from concluding now. Ex- will look to unravel that tonight at the debate--if that's what you want to call it.

Because he won't be debating. He'll be destroying, ruining, catastrophizing. His exaggerations and lies will stand on their own. Many on the other side can't wait to hear them--again. They've long ago succumbed to being misled. They've already disdained the possibility that America can find a better place in the world without him running it. Harris may try her best to discount his endless nonsense, but will only partly succeed.

The country that he wants you to conclude is genuine is false and wrong and hopeless. And yes, it can become that way--if he's allowed to be at the top of the decision chain for another four years. It would get there in a hurry now, because he can't wait to get back at those who have written and spoken against him, and he knows something about the mechanics of doing so. He would also hire sycophants who are slavishly loyal and pliant to his every wish.

If Harris' "joy" survives tonight in any form, she will win and perhaps even pull away. But he is frighteningly persuasive. His very presence overwhelms some people despite the phoniness. Force and power are all he knows--but they work.

We stand at that brink. I wish the country well.

You, too. Be well. Be careful. With some luck, I'll see you down the road.

Mister Mark