Sunday, June 23, 2019

"I Stopped It" Equals "I'm the Decider"

For 45 to say that he pulled the plug on what would likely have been a provocative, escalatory response to Iran's destruction of one of our military drones was supposed to be a reassuring reaffirmation: I'm in charge here.

It isn't. Because he isn't.

Anything but. It's clear from the leaks of inside-the-Oval-Office conversations that are always provided because he can't control those, either, that 45 was caught between military and diplomatic/economic solutions--a.k.a. John Bolton and Mike Pompeo--the same way that Jimmy Carter was caught between Cyrus Vance and Zbigniew Brzezinski, Gerald Ford was caught between James Schlesinger and Henry Kissinger, and Bush-43 between Dick Cheney and something less than complete aggression.

That he was ten minutes away from blowing something up that would have killed about 150 people suggests dithering, not decisiveness. A Business Week article suggests that, if the pre-briefing by the military was anything like that delivered to previous presidents, 45 would have been told right from the top that the attack plan would have cost lives. So 45's explanation of his decision-making, as is true of his explanations of nearly everything else, is tainted with the knowledge that he very definitely knew exactly what he was doing--including the original decision to attack.

But we now also know that:
  • Tucker Carlson, the right-wing commentator on Fox News, told 45 that an attack on Iran would likely cost him the 2020 election;
  • Pompeo made it a point to tell 45 that the economic sanctions on Iran were working quite well, thus putting the kind of pressure on the Iranian government that they were meant to; and
  • There was enough evidence to suggest that the attack on the U.S. drone was, if not an outright mistake, a reaction from a trigger-happy member of the Iranian military, and not a plan from the government to escalate tensions.
Knowing all that beforehand, 45 still allowed preparedness to proceed until literally the last minute. This is playing with disaster, a fulfillment of the fictional film Fail-Safe, in which both the American president and Soviet premier, though in direct consultation at times, watch helplessly as the systems they thought they controlled spin hopelessly out of control--and, though neither of them wants it, two major cities are obliterated.

Even with a non-nuclear attack, ten minutes of slack aren't very many. The world is still a large place, messages take time to reach layers of command and can get scrambled--or, as the Iranian attack suggests, either ignored or intentionally misunderstood. It begs responses by terrorists with tacit approval, things like blowing up jetliners: At least that way, though you don't know when, you know it's going to happen, nobody within your government will touch it, and maybe you can cover your tracks.

We don't play that game. They do. He plays politics with everything. Look back at the three bulleted points I've made above: Which one do you think weighed the most on his mind when he reversed course with ten minutes left? Anyone with a firm grasp on geopolitics and diplomacy?

Does it suggest that he has strong views on anything? Because he doesn't, especially about things that he hasn't already registered in his small, relatively vacant mind, including a guilty verdict against five black teenagers who were wrongly accused of rape 30 years ago. Iran wouldn't be one of them.

He hasn't read up on it. He hasn't asked about it. He just thinks we were weak to negotiate with it, and he hates the appearance of weakness (not its reality, for prior lack of knowledge makes one a weak decision-maker). But telling everyone that "I stopped" the attack is exactly that, except that he still thinks enough of the public will see that as being somehow blessed with peaceable intentions out of the clear blue sky.

All this suggests an inability to decide crucial matters, much like Bush-43 appeared to be most of the time Cheney was around. For him to say "I'm the decider" was much like teachers proclaiming that they ran their classrooms--which means, when you have to re-establish that idea, the kids have already taken over.

Bush-43 managed to reclaim his authority toward the end of his presidency, projecting a more moderating tone. But it took a good five to six years to do so. By then, the damage done by such mistakes as the Iraq War and No Child Left Behind were deeply underway--mistakes for which we are paying today.

45's mistakes, his refusal to hire staff at even the highest levels, his stubbornness to absorb any outside information that might help establish policy, his obsession with a crepe paper construction of a past that never existed, his racism and his insult-based approach to politics will also wreak horrible damage, whether he is impeached or not, whether he is re-elected or not. We are left with a blind, fragile hope that, next time around, a combination of advisers and dumb luck will leave us in the same place we are now--somehow stumbling a bit short of catastrophe.

Not exactly the most responsible process for a superpower. At least, one that used to wear that label far better. But then, "responsible" is a word this president hates nearly as much as "immigrant."

Be well. I'll see you down the road.


Mister Mark

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