It'll Be A Republican, or Serendipity. Here's Why.

Elizabeth Warren's exit from the presidential race has brought with it big chucks of angst. She's so intelligent. She had a plan for everything. She stood up to men. She had it all.

It doesn't matter. She's not gonna get the presidency. The reasons have (almost) nothing to do with her.

They have to do with how at least 40 percent of the electorate views leadership, and can bring along with it another seven or eight percent to make a coalition that accomplishes what it set out to do: elect a president. They have to do with things she can't control and doesn't want to control.

Take a good look at her. She has glasses on. She's a law professor. She speaks clearly, no nonsense. All those are good attributes for being president.

Except for one thing: She's a she. We have had a professor as president before. His name was Woodrow Wilson. He spoke with no nonsense. Wrote a book, too: His own words, not like Kennedy (who, understandably, was recovering from a plane crash), just like she did. He wore glasses.

Same deal. But women couldn't even vote for president when he ran. Now they can, and a whole bunch of them don't want to put a woman in the White House. They still think that's only a man's job.

Yeah, I know: And Nancy Pelosi is third in line. But that, to them, is third. And she shouldn't even be there in the first place: too liberal.

That's the problem. Democrats are considered too mushy for big jobs, too weak. What bothered Republicans about Obama, among other things, was that he was too equivocal, too willing to find the center of everything, not willing to say, 'Damn it, this is what we going to do. This is where we're going.'

Like Reagan. Or Bush-43. Or 45. But you see, Reagan had some notion of statecraft. He didn't do everything headlong. He held back a little. But he did implore Gorbachev to 'tear down this wall,' and down it came, three years later. Not bad. (Except Gorbachev had little to do with it)

Bush-43 felt he had to try to find Osama bin Laden after he blew up the World Trade Center. He had to take out those rascally terrorists. They just had to be there in Afghanistan. We're still chasing them, 19 years later. But didn't he look tough?

That's the thing. That's why this election will even be close. There's something inside of us that demands toughness, or at least the appearance of it. It has to get pretty bad out there to think of a leader as having something else than that quality.

That's why the Democrats have a tough time getting someone in the White House, as incompetent the last two Republican presidents have been: Because they don't sound tough or mean, or not mean enough. At least, the ongoing mentality believes it, the mentality that hardly fits any decent scenario anymore, but persists nonetheless. Whatever Democrat wins the presidency has to sound as if he'd be nasty to take on if the going got tough. Never mind the stakes and never mind the capability of the USA, which has been well-established for some time now; the candidate has to sound tough, as if he'd almost be waiting to get at an adversary.

A woman must pass this muster. There's no Democratic woman who sounds like it now--at least, no Democratic woman who has had the opportunity to sound that tough. She has to sound like Maggie Thatcher urging her troops on in the Falkland Islands. No way of knowing that scenario until it happens.

Which is why the first woman president will probably be a Republican. It'll be a woman who's the best Republican politician, making the same tough-guy comments than a man would. The best Democratic women don't make such comments, which belies their competencies. Never mind that they're way, way out ahead of the Republican women right now--women who have been largely muzzled by Republican men. That has little to do with it.

The timing must be right. Remember, a whole bunch of Republican men got shunted aside by 45 last time. A couple of women got in there, but were barely noticed. That's why, barring an utter surprise, it'll take another three or four presidential campaigns to realize.

Elizabeth Warren, Amy Klobuchar, Kamala Harris: Each clearly better than the fool we have in the White House, but each of whom really never had a chance. That's too bad. It's an indication that the longest-running democracy going is showing signs of decay, instead of signs of moving forward. This should have happened by now. But we knew that, didn't we?

Be well. Be careful. I'll see you down the road.


Mister Mark