What If He Gets Sick?

We have to entertain the notion now; it's creeping up all around the creep. What happens if the president gets sick?

It would seem that the 25th Amendment might have to be invoked. It's common knowledge, now, that Covid-19 is, or can be, a debilitating disease, if not a fatal one. It can attack the whole body and put someone in bed for weeks. It can also kill, slowly or quickly. In the meantime, there will be a point at which the victim of a bad dose will be very racked up.

And the disease is particularly unkind to older people (which is why I got tested the other day, and await results, though I don't think I have it. Better to know than not to know.). 45 is in his 70s. He's a prime target.

In his twisted mind, I understand why he wants to appear in front of the press and cameras on a daily basis: He wants to appear indestructible, as poorly as he handles the press. But he doesn't wear a mask because he thinks that implies weakness. He has to mingle with people daily. He gets tested daily. But that doesn't mean (as it doesn't mean the same with me) that he won't get it or can't get it. All it means is that he doesn't have it at that particular moment.

Secret Service agents are getting sick. Aides to the veep are getting sick. The White House is a place of very narrow hallways and cramped offices; the breeding ground is obvious.

We have to be prepared for it. The 25th Amendment is the only constitutional safe haven we have, and looking at it carefully, it really isn't. Again, what is usually implied by the Constitution doesn't have to apply to this president. He will invoke an end run when and where he can.

The staff will be hard-pressed to create excuses for him, but they'll try to do it. It's been done before. I have it on good knowledge, from a late member of Ronald Reagan's Situation Room staff during his second term--and his is a second-hand account--that Reagan spent roughly the last year and a half with clear signs of senility. The public was kept away for the most part. They stood him up when they had to, Sam Donaldson's reports notwithstanding, and got him to the finish line.

But 45 has to campaign this year. What he gets sick and has to campaign? That will be impossible. The lack of public appearances will be obvious now. There's no middle ground with this guy. He's all-in, everywhere, regardless of whether he's wearing people out or not.

Not only that, but this White House has been very leaky. Secrets are never kept. The staffers can't help themselves.

It may be possible for some decision-making to the transferred to Pence without letting 45 know it's being done. His grasp of governmental reach is questionable to begin with, so he not know it's happening. But there will also be a distinct lack of activity; tweets will be reduced and so will routine trips. He's been hankering to get back out on the road to begin with; he sudden withdrawal will be all too obvious.

Somebody will have to take the first step if 45's bed-ridden. As with other amendments, a shorthand version is always at work. Generally speaking, the public believes that if there's any significant evidence that the president is too incapacitated to do his job, the week and the Cabinet can tell Congress that and the veep takes over. But it isn't quite that simple.

The amendment says that the "principal officers of the executive departments or (my emphasis) of such other body as Congress may be law provide" make the decision that the president can't do his job very well and have to turn power over to the veep. There's quite the devil in those details.

Do you think that the Cabinet, appointed as 45's loyal toadies without independent judgment that they can get caught making, will for one minute consider rendering judgment to take their boss' job away from him? Undoubtedly, they'll defer to Congress.

And, there's the notion that 45 has made several members of the Cabinet "appointed", but not official; he hasn't run them past Congress. He can claim that they are, in fact, not Cabinet members, and can be fired or not included at any time--not counted as the principal officers and, therefore, not allowed to participate in the decision. He can simply leave it up to the Chief of Staff, Mark Meadows (from whom we have heard practically nothing), to choose the group, which would likely tilt the decision in his favor.

There will be confusion, which is 45's ballpark. There will be delay, which plays right into his hands. There may be chaos, on which he thrives. Meanwhile, the clock ticks and he might get sicker and sicker, with his already horrible judgment becoming more bizarre by the day.

The Republicans, especially in the Senate where Mitch McConnell can tell his members what to have for lunch, will insist upon an investigation. That will waste more time. Who will conduct it to anyone's satisfaction, especially in light of the shambling pseudo-investigation of Brett Kavanaugh's abuse of Christine Blasey Ford, with vague conclusions by design? It might move forward, but at a snail's pace.

You might as well write off the 25th Amendment as irrelevant, then, except if McConnell sees this as an opportunity to bring at least some government competence into place wth Pence's previous experience, never mind his twisted religiosity. Or, if more federal judgeships are dangling in the mist and he wants someone to sign off on them. Then he'll move.

So no, the 25th Amendment won't do the trick, even if 45 gets sick. The greater fear should be if he gets beat--no sure thing--and refuses to leave office, sick or not. That will be the greater challenge for American democracy, and something that should be discussed ahead of time. Only Bill Maher has dared to bring it up to prospective Democratic candidates, and nobody has directly answered the question. It needs to get answered, and with enough panache to reassure people that this election won't foment an attempted coup d'etat.

More on that later. In the meantime, our sick society will probably get sicker as we wait to hold another sick election. But it's all we have.

Be well. Be careful. With some luck, I'll see you down the road.


Mister Mark