History matters in more than one way. It allows us to see what's possible, and that's not always a relief.
Let's take the Election of 1824, for instance. The present election, which we are still in thanks to an unaccepting presidential loser, has nearly duplicated it. The Electoral College will meet in 14 days, and 45 has still not challenged the whole electoral vote, which he is likely to do at the Supreme Court level. Nothing he's done has gained the least bit of legal traction so far, largely because states have fixed their vote counting processes so as to avoid the kinds of attacks 45 is leveling, only because he lost.
It has nothing to do with the legitimacy or integrity of the balloting, which in fact is only being solidified by the pointless challenges. Name the state: Pennsylvania, Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona. He's gotten nowhere.
But in 1824, at the end of a time called the Era of Good Feelings, in which there was only one organized national political party, the Democratic-Republicans (later known as Democrats), who were divided regionally, things were a different in a way. In a way, they weren't. There were cries of corruption, and on the surface, they appeared to be valid, if only because the winner of the presidential election either really was corrupt and practiced it in the open--not unlike the president we've had these four years--or because he didn't think politics mattered and decided to govern on stubborn principle (more likely), which was a naive and what turned out to be a ridiculous notion, or at least a bad choice.
Andrew Jackson, southern Democrat and native of Tennessee, capitalizing on a recent national expansion of states into the West and South and the lack of property qualifications for voting, won the popular vote in a four-way race that also featured Henry Clay, the Speaker of the House, an aristocrat from Kentucky and a Whig, a party developing during that time (and lasting until eclipsed by the Republicans in the 1850s). John Quincy Adams, son of the revolutionary lawyer and second president, a northern Democratic-Republican (but who would have been a Federalist if that party had survived), finished second in the popular vote.
Nobody won a majority of the electoral vote. So, as the Constitution dictates, the election was thrown into the House of Representatives. Clay, who liked neither Jackson nor Adams, favored the latter, if only because Jackson, a crude, disheveled man who made his reputation as a brawler and frontier soldier and hero of the victory over the British in New Orleans (which wouldn't have had to be fought with modern communications, since the peace treaty of the War of 1812 had been signed 15 days earlier in Ghent, Belgium), did not appear to have anything like the political savvy and experience to handle the job of the presidency (Does this sound familiar?). Adams, at least, had aristocratic bearing and inheritance going for him.
Clay had finished a distant third and was clearly not going to win the House vote. But as Speaker, he did have influence over a few House members, and leveraged that to throw his support to Adams. After 36 ballots and a hopeless outlook, the deadlock was broken and Adams was elected president.
Jackson's followers were bitter. They resented the prestige that Clay and Adams had already established and the privilege they exuded. It was the condescending, aristocratic tone that angered them, much like 45's followers resent the condescension of the liberal "elites." They would carry that resentment for another four years, when Jackson ran again.
To fuel their fire, Adams also nominated Clay to be Secretary of State. There, of course, was a clear case of, dare we call it, quid pro quo: What looked to be an obvious tradeoff, what Jacksonians called a "corrupt bargain." Was it made in a backroom deal while all those ballots were being counted in seemingly endless deadlock? There was nothing in writing. Who knew?
Adams and Clay said no, but as in American tradition, the story that emerged had as much to do with repetition than accuracy. The finger-pointing got legs and kept it, since Jackson had plenty of supporters in that day's media, which did not respect objective journalism. Armed with that anger, Jackson cruised to victory in the election of 1828.
45's claims of a "stolen election" is one that will no doubt be sustained for a while despite the clear and open counting of the ballots (in Georgia, remember, three times). And even if Fox News has begrudgingly agreed that all this is for naught, 45 is encouraging followers to tune into fledgling networks such as One America News and Newsmax, neither of which has accepted the results. Because of the First Amendment, neither of them can be sued successfully, since they're commenting upon a presidential election which, due to its ultimate political status, is freer from libel than anything else we know of. They can broadcast as many lies, dead-ends and innuendoes as they want, and do it as often as they want.
Jackson clearly kept his following and expanded it, using the "corrupt bargain" as justification. 45's claims of corruption may stick just as well. Even though he lost the popular vote by six million, he came plenty close enough. Will 74 million people stay with him, even though his claims are based on lies and conjured accusations?
Well, they obviously stayed with him while he did other highly unethical and illegal acts (for a nice summary, check the New York Times Magazine on November 22); while he divided the country and fanned the same kind of class resentment; while he insisted upon saying things that, in the name of stopping "political correctness," were nothing more and nothing less than favorable exaggerations and lies, more than 22,000 of them; while he encouraged extremism in Charlottesville and crushed the humanity of those seeking asylum here. None of that seemed to matter.
45's voice, regardless of the utter lack of integrity attached to it, seems to be all that needs to be present. Far too many accept it as truth, or close enough to truth for them. And it certainly won't stop 45 from making up conspiracies, which he could do daily.
In The People's Almanac, David Wallechinsky called Andrew Jackson (paraphrasing here) the most unstable person to ever become president. He may have been eclipsed.
Remember, too, that many of 45's toadies survived the election, especially in the Senate, where they have a far greater peacock status: Lindsay Graham, Ted Cruz, Ron Johnson, Marco Rubio. Remember, too, that if Republicans survive the election runoffs in Georgia, Biden's Cabinet positions must be run past them. They will create "corruption" where it does not exist, and accuse the Democrats of having done the same thing, through empty accusations, during the impeachment trials last year.
It means that not only are we not done with 45 and his nastiness, we are in the middle of an era in which it will be omnipresent, despite Joe Biden's attempts to balance and ameliorate it. It will not die easy, if it dies at all.
45 will need a volume-laden perch from which to continue to wield influence. If he gains it, Republicans might still look over their shoulders to see what he's saying. That is intimidation on a grand scale, and it might leave him even more influential than he was as president, unaffected by House Democrats standing in his legislative way. Remember: He can be elected president one more time. There are rumors that he will not only not attend the inauguration, but hold a rally during it.
There is nothing, too, that prevents him from calling not only members of Congress, but foreign leaders ahead of whatever Biden tries to do. He could get their phone numbers; all he has to do is ask someone to provide them before he leaves the White House. It's up to them to pick up the phone and talk to him with any meaning. What's to stop him from keeping a running relationship with Putin? Kim Jong Il? A third rail isn't that difficult if you believe the public's still behind you.
Andrew Jackson was president for two terms, and left the country in financial ruin. The economic effects of the pandemic will spill over to Biden, who 45 will blame for it, the same way he took credit for the recovery from the recession that challenged Obama. He may try to create a shadow government with access to officeholders, planting seeds of disruption and doubt in their heads. Biden might have to take decisive action to avoid the interruptions of a damaging pest.
On the other hand, 45's fundamentally lazy anyhow, and that might take too much work. He won't strain himself. He'll act on whims, as he always does, living in a world he has created for himself and finding support there. Unlike Jackson, though, he won't disappear.
If past presidents can get six figures to speak, he won't hesitate, especially since he can still say whatever he wants. And he has, by one report, raised $170 million since the election, without speaking anywhere. But he apparently owes $421 million, so he has some work to do.
This assumes that his legal problems can be handled without jail terms. He has lawyers to fight, and yes, the rich have that advantage. The stable of attorneys he got to contest the election results slowly disintegrated, but criminal charges in New York are quite another thing. His speaking fees can pay for them (He can also sell some of his property, with his status as a former president jacking up the price.), and he can certainly keep raising money from jail, with a claim of "political prisoner" added to his other lies.
Would criminal conduct be an issue during another campaign? Don't be so sure. Eugene Debs, famed labor leader and avowed socialist, ran for president from jail in 1920. He was put there for violating unjust World War I sedition laws. He got more than 900,000 votes, or more than 3 percent.
History is a double-edged sword. Our electoral system and federal bureaucracy have held, for now, thwarting a historic effort to undo them. But our tomorrows are fraught with uncertainty. People still do the same things for the same reasons. Meanwhile, we await the results from Georgia.
Be well. Be careful. Wear a mask. With some luck, I'll see you down the road.
Mister Mark
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