Why Putin, with Madness Like This, Can't Possibly Win

Lots and lots of overestimation in Ukraine, wouldn't you say?

Overestimation of how the Ukrainians would just roll right over and capitulate to an obviously overwhelming Russian onslaught. They gave Russia, and the rest of the world--which had written them off before it all started; face it, you did, didn't you?--for that matter, a big fuck you.

Overestimation, too, of the superiority of Russian ground forces, which have come up woefully short of expectations. Communications sneaked from Russian radio messages indicate that they are undersupplied and undertrained. Low morale can't be far away, if it already hasn't arrived. Somewhere between 7,000 and 15,000 Russian soldiers have already been killed. At the low end of the estimate, with just one calendar month elapsed, the Russians have lost over 200 killed per day. There's no reason why that rate won't at least remain the same.

Some domination. Some overwhelming superiority. Russia has a problem, and it grows by the day.

Vastly superior hardware is making the big difference now, in that the Ukrainians are strapped for defenses against Russian planes, tanks, and missile launchers. But it isn't likely that they, alone, will result in a Russian victory. Why not? Because with each destructive strike, the Ukrainians are getting angrier and angrier, more and more fierce in their defensive posture, and less and less likely to settle on anything but the independence with which they peaceably existed on February 23.

One of the few comparable situations I can think of is the Hungarian Revolution, which lasted only for 11 days in 1956. The Hungarians resisted the Soviet Union's communist rule, brought in a government of their own, and tried to fight off Soviet tanks with Molotov cocktails. Meanwhile, the United States and NATO sat there with their thumbs up their backsides, afraid that the Soviets would begin a nuclear war if they entered the fray. That threat, of course, hasn't disappeared in Ukraine, and has reared its head for the first time in quite a while.

But NATO, after an understandably slow start, has rallied to support Ukraine with weapons, logistics, and other supplies. Maybe Vladimir Putin thought of this situation as another Hungary. But some nations and some alliances, as opposed to him, have learned from the past. They're involved without getting involved, and Putin is stuck with their assistance.

Beyond that, though, how can any leader posit his country into a positive place after initiating devastation like this? Yes, other European nations purchase energy supplies from Russia, but after the meeting among NATO nations that's just happened, they'll be reducing their reliance on Russia very soon. But beyond that: How can any international cooperation in any other area--science, sports, scholarship--be anything but tainted by the specter of this premeditated viciousness? How can someone from, say, Austria feel good about blending efforts with someone from Russia, as innocent of their country's viciousness as they may be?

Putin has created a vehicle to shut off the people in his country from the people in others'. The world stands to lose a valuable resource. Everything will not just calm down and 'be okay' after this villainy. Someone will have to answer.

To the extent that he will remain in power, the Russian people will have to answer. Information about the source of this evil will be slow in arriving, but it will arrive. Putin, with madness like this, can't possibly win what he wants: a united, expanded, loyal nation.

That the Ukrainians are not only holding out but apparently, in some areas, actually regaining ground they lost is a tribute to the human spirit that will endure regardless of the eventual outcome, as obscured as it now is. Putin forgot his own country's ferocious response to Nazis in World War II; calling out the Ukrainians for adapting similar political stances is a futile and ridiculous effort to smear them. Notice that no one, not even independent organizations, are investigating the veracity of such accusations; they are being dismissed out of hand.

This won't end well, regardless. Either the Ukrainians will somehow outlast Russia and hold onto a significant part of their land, or they will be gradually crushed beneath the overwhelming amount of Russian hardware. Either way, what remains won't be a lot of fun for either side to embrace. 

But the world knows the Russians are to blame. Its attitude toward them will be fascinating to watch. Justice is sometimes served spoonful by spoonful; this may be one of those times.

Be well. Be careful. With some luck, I'll see. you down the road.

Mister Mark