Ron DeSantis, we are told, is toast. His presidential campaign has been losing momentum repeatedly. Just look at the guy, anyhow. He doesn't even know how to stand!
His state, Florida, is presently trashing anything not incredibly reactionary and condemning it as "woke culture." Black and gays are particularly vulnerable to attacks and strictures that used to defy imagination. For the governor of such a backwards-facing state to actually believe he can win a nationwide race is, what, beyond absurd?
Columnist after columnist has buried him. Okay, but how much of that is wistful thinking, and how much of that is based on hard evidence?
So please, if you will, absorb this bit of information from the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel's Bill Glauber:
Wisconsin is shaping up to be a tight battleground in the Republican primary for the presidency, according to July 5's Marquette University Law School Poll.
Former president (he who will not be named) was favored by 31% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents surveyed, while [DeSantis] was at 30%.
But in a head-to-head match-up, DeSantis was favored by 57% and [ex-] by 41%.
And in theoretical general election match-ups next years, President Joe Biden led DeSantis by 49% to 47%, while Biden had a bigger lead against [ex-], 52% to 43%.
Sooooooo whose campaign's falling apart? Remember Wisconsin's strategic positioning in the electoral scheme: always a swing state. Remember that the first Republican presidential debate takes place in Milwaukee next month. Remember that the 2024 Republican National Convention is also in Milwaukee.
What does all this mean? You can say it's too soon to tell, but the numbers clearly fly in the face of what the pundits are racing each other to say: DeSantis doesn't have a chance.
It sure doesn't look that way in Wisconsin. How can this be explained? A number of ways, possibly:
- Wisconsin has always been difficult to figure out. Just take our two U.S. Senators: Tammy Baldwin and Ron Johnson. You couldn't pick two more different politicians. A reflection upon our polarization, perhaps?
- People really are getting tired of ex- and his shenanigans. His influence is fading ever-so-slowly. You can barely perceive it--though there are plenty left over in the cult;
- It doesn't matter which authoritarian candidate survives. It just matters that there is one. The preference for the strongman has not only endured--consider Texas--it's flourished. In DeSantis, Wisconsin reactionaries might just see what they've been lusting for all along--the simple answer to everything, delivered with insults;
- The same for racism. Sadly, Wisconsin has perpetually been on the back burner with regard to racial prejudice, but that burner has never cooled off.
Regardless, there seems to be a restlessness among Wisconsin Republicans. Their faith in their previously unchallenged standard bearer looks to be eroding. That DeSantis seems to have horrible policy choices, but few clear grifting or fraud inclinations, seems to be the horse they're riding.
But threats to democracy in the name of "preserving America" take more than one form. At bottom--which is where they belong--they mean that people don't want to take on the responsibility of self-government, that there is no such thing as "good" government. They can't be bothered with it.
That Wisconsin, formerly a state infused with the energy of progressivism, has sunk to this level, bodes very badly for the rest of the nation. Now, more than ever, people who still believe in our flawed but effective system must step up and be counted--in dinner conversations and at the polls.
Be well. Be careful. With some luck, I'll see you down the road.
Mister Mark
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