It Was Thanksgiving That Did Hong In

It was Thanksgiving. That much I know. It was that simple.

Francesca Hong's candidacy for Wisconsin governor might have survived her comments about the police--namely, that she favored not only defunding it but eliminating it altogether--and might have managed to flick them aside as an overreaction to the George Floyd tragedy that nobody really believes in anyhow. Maybe, although you know Tom Tiffany, the Republican MAGA devotee', would have included that on every ad on which he would have attacked her (which would have been all of them, owing to the Republican inclination to distract from who he really is and what he really wants). Maybe, if she would have come clean soon after gaining the nomination, which she very nearly did, she might have managed to convince a majority of Wisconsin voters to forgive, if not forget.

Maybe. But not her comments about Thanksgiving. There are very few things that Americans can agree on, even if at the table they're all opening their mouths now only to take in the stuffing and the cranberry sauce to avoid stalking out of whomever's house after an intense, ridiculous argument breaks out between people who are still thinking versus people who stopped as soon as 45-47 took that first trip down the escalator and took them with it. One of them is having Thanksgiving, period.

That's the comment that did her in, trust me. The New York Times is trying to figure out how David Crowley managed to come from oceans behind to defeat Hong,. Predictably, the article is filled with social science and tendencies, including Wisconsin voters who wait until the last minute to figure things out-- which in this particular case, with four other candidates too chicken to call each other out during the waste of time that the Milwaukee Channel 12's debate was the other day, made perfect sense.

No. Forget the polling with the fancy analysis, crosstabs, probability, reliability and other statistical gobbledygook. Hong lost because she wants, and has always wanted, an end to Thanksgiving, that most American of all holidays and chocked so full of culture it practically bursts (including the day after, swelled up with shopping). She didn't mutter it with an open mike, either. She said so online and on record.

Yup. She claims that to be part of her wokeness. Good for her purity. It never occurred to her, I guess, that she should have said something like, "Listen, I think that whole thing is an insult to Natives so I'm not taking part, thank you very much. If y'all want to do it, then fine, but remember what you're doing." You know, give the culture the benefit of the doubt, because turning that around is kind of like climbing Mount Everest with a mule and a six-pack of Gatorade.

I'm guessing--and no polling on that question has been attempted, because pollsters believe themselves to be so superior to the rest of us that such a simple question can be ignored--that uncommitted Democrats took one look at that and thought of Francesca Hong as something of a kamikaze pilot, determined and willing to destroy herself and the Democratic Party.

If you think Tom Tiffany would have jumped all over her comments about the police, think about his next ad, which would have been having dinner at 'Thanksgiving (instead of the picnic table, at which he eschewed his Old Fashioned in an earlier, very stupid ad for a glass of milk, which he didn't raise to his mouth, in an unwitting attempt to demonstrate his 'old fashioned'--get it?--values in the Dairy State) and would have made complete and deserved fun at Hong for forgetting what 'real Americans' appreciate, along with God and family and the Packers, not necessarily in that order. There would have been several spinoffs about that, too, which he would have followed up with because he would have gotten so much Elon Musk money that he would not have needed to count it--which the Republican-loaded Supreme Court has pretty much told everybody never to worry about again.

Crowley isn't immune to Tiffany's needle, either, and not without good reason. He got out of the race, then suddenly redeclared his candidacy about six seconds after the otherwise retiring Governor Tony Evers saw this runaway train heading toward an inevitable disaster that was Francesca Hong. Evers must have called someone to call someone and suggested that if Crowley could possibly be persuaded, he would do his best, at the last possible minute, to give him a badly needed boost and maybe snatch something akin to victory from debacle. You can guess what Tiffany's going to chant now: Flip-flop, flip-flop!

That Crowley only saw the path that he previously said he didn't see before Lt. Governor Sara Rodriguez was forced to leave the race when the only financial thing that could have derailed her candidacy actually did--outright theft by her financial chair--was a demonstration of political opportunism that, at least not recently, has not been matched. Not only was that one hell of a good break for Crowley, but also good for the rest of us Democrats, because Rodriguez would have probably finished second in the primary to a victorious Hong, a pyrrhic win if there ever would have been one.

All of this has switched the question completely: From 'Do the Republicans actually think they have a chance?' to "Will the Democrats actually get their act together in time to avoid another embarrassment?'

I have no idea. Crowley has a few things in his favor, though: 

• He's black--yes, hoping to be our first black governor, which is always a double-edged sword because, while it's likely that the blacks will now come out in November, we can count on Tiffany to resurrect race-baiting in a statewide race, kind of like what Michael Gableman did to Louis Butler in the state Supreme Court race back about two decades or so;
• He happens to be the County Executive of Milwaukee County, which any Democrat needing to win needs to carry by at least 62 or 63 percent with a big turnout; 
• He has some momentum going; and
• He speaks relatively well.

How well that plays in the following counties: Douglas, Bayfield, Ashland and Door--the first three at the very top of the state, but with a decent Democratic following and the ones that Evers managed to win in each of his two campaigns, where he barely edged his opponents, including incumbent Scott Walker; the last one a crucial swing county--remains to be seen, but are indicators of how this showdown may go. 

But other questions linger. Will Dane County, oozing with Madison liberals, still come out for Crowley, now that its darling, Hong, has been turned back at the very last second? 

And what about Rebecca Cooke? Can she bring Democrats with her in the 3rd Congressional District race, which she lost by all of two points in 2024, against the closest thing we have to Simon Legree, the sinister, snarling Derrick Van Orden, especially in the Eau Claire area, to help Crowley win a grand slam?

Stay tuned. Let's hope Democrats can celebrate Thanksgiving 23 days later with an extra Brandy Alexander or two, toasting a continuance of rationality in the governor's residence. Almost by default, we still have a chance to have that.

Be well. Be careful. With some luck, I'll see you down the road.

Mister Mark